Under the weather
Do you remember the old
adage, “When America sneezes, Britain catches a cold”? In the time when the US
was the only economic superpower in the world and drove the global economy
forward single handed, then actions taken in America would indeed be
transmitted across the Atlantic and Britain would inevitably feel the effects.
In these post sub-prime-fallout days with the European Union as Britain’s
premier trading partner and China sharing global dominance with the US, it
rather seems that we in the UK are susceptible to catching every bug on the go.
Such is the state of the
global economy in the 21st Century. Governments now have less and
less freedom to make fiscal decisions for ideological reasons as they are swept
along (indeed, some may say, swept away) by economic forces beyond their
current control.
In such turbulent times,
where government debt levels grab the headlines and citizens across Europe are
voting against unpopular austerity measures like turkeys voting against
Christmas, can businesses keep their heads below the macroeconomic parapet and
use recession to their advantage? And what can the UK government actually do to
make a real impact?
Defensive big businesses
In spite of (or perhaps
because of) the devastation in the banking sector over the past 5 years, our largest
businesses have been building strength in their balance sheets as a buffer
against the storm. They have cash
reserves today that are typically much higher than they were in the recession
of the early 1990’s but so far these British businesses have been reluctant to
use it to stimulate economic growth.
It is the usual vicious
cycle of consumers lacking the confidence to spend because of the uncertainty
of their personal situations which causes business to lack the confidence to
invest in products and services for their consumers. They don’t know whether to
cut costs and ride out the storm, to invest now to gain competitor advantage
when growth does return or to do both at the same time.
Historically, big
businesses were more typically national than international in their make-up and
could take decisions based on serving local markets and satisfying local
shareholders. They could take more measured risks and a longer view of future
success.
Today, there are just too many global factors to take into account to
allow a typical board the freedom to jump too soon. For large businesses, and
indeed for our hamstrung national governments, both so often the drivers of
economic growth, there is a new conservatism, a new global reality, a new
reluctance to grow.
The depths of recession
Medium sized enterprises,
especially those in the traditional ‘high street’ retail sector have been
suffering and failing at an alarming rate. Pressured by their high premises costs,
mounting debts and falling sales they have been forced to discount heavily, close
shops, shed staff and watch their share prices tumble. Some are now paying the
ultimate price and entering administration. Although many could see the change
in consumer spending patterns happening, not all were able to change their outmoded
business models in time to take any advantage.
Smaller entrepreneurial
businesses on the other hand work differently. Many carry fewer costs, have
more dynamic trading models and were faster to respond to recession in the
first place. Some have quickly re-cut their cloth and are now best placed to
spot and exploit the first green shoots of recovery. But with growing numbers
of unemployed, continuing uncertainty in the markets and a shrinking public
sector any recovery is likely to be slow. But when it does happen it is likely
to happen among small, grass-roots businesses first.
Not all Doom and Gloom
Not everything stagnates
in a recession. UK consumer behaviour has been changing fundamentally. Back in
2010, the Boston Consulting Group said that the ‘internet economy’ in the UK
was worth £121bn and formed a bigger contribution to GDP than that of any other
G20 nation.
Even today it is predicted to grow at a rate of 11% per year until
2016. British consumers have embraced the web and are starting to embrace
mobile technology with equal passion. This is reflected in the performance of
businesses like Apple and Samsung who are selling mobile internet technology devices
into the UK like hot cakes.
Government as enabler
To lift Britain out of our
recession what is needed is encouragement and confidence. Encouragement must come
from the government, which at a time of enormous national debt should get out
of the ‘doom and gloom’ game and get into the ‘positive enablement’ game. There
is much talk about reducing red tape for smaller businesses to encourage them
to employ more people more flexibly but this is just tinkering about at the
edges.
One significant way to encourage
optimism, and consumer demand, would be to recognise the shift in consumer
behaviour and widen the conduit to the internet economy for British consumers.
At the moment, limited internet access and slow data transmission rates are
stifling the growth of mobile commerce and delaying the speed to market for many
new technology businesses in the UK.
4G will drive growth, why delay?
The government should be
actively promoting 4G rather than endlessly talking about it. It needs to cut
through the internecine strife among the mobile operators and compel the industry
regulator, Ofcom, to speed up the introduction of 4G across the country.
This will not only increase
consumer confidence but it will also give huge encouragement to those key
technology businesses in UK locations like Cambridge and the so-called Silicon
Roundabout in London that rely on rapid, 'available anywhere' data access and
transmission for their products to become successful.
Will confidence return this year?
Confidence on the other
hand is a strange, elusive creature. It is difficult to assess on a national
scale but when national confidence is low everyone knows it. It can be sparked
by the smallest of events but then needs to be supported and grown by concerted
action.
And in 2012, here in the
UK, we have the opportunity to spark new confidence in the future. For once,
the eyes of the world will be on this country as we celebrate Queen Elizabeth’s
Diamond Jubilee and welcome the athletes of the world to the Olympic Games.
In the scale of world
economics these are both small events but they provide an opportunity to spark
enthusiasm, restore a sense of national pride and instil confidence in this
country’s future. It is a once in a lifetime chance to start to lift the nation
out of recession and lead the world towards recovery. All it needs is the
action to ensure that the flame burns for much longer than the Olympic torch.
After all, more confidence
leads to more spending leads to more employment leads to more tax income leads
to reduced national debt leads to more confidence; the virtuous cycle is born.
And what a true Olympic legacy that would be for the people of Britain.
Our future can be bright
So for businesses the
current economic climate remains a significant challenge. But it also presents
a huge opportunity to establish a business paradigm to respond to, and indeed
encourage, the change in behaviour of UK consumers. Time spent getting this
right now will be rewarded by huge competitive advantage in the future. And for
those entrepreneurs with great ideas for new businesses, it is worth
reflecting that the biggest businesses of the next decade may not even be
trading yet.
Above
all, there is no reason why those businesses shouldn’t be British. We still
have the ambition, drive, skills and tenacity that created our greatest
historical institutions. We just need encouragement and confidence in ourselves,
and the steady nerve to capitalise on both.
2012 can be the start of our
bright new future. I wonder if we will make the most of this unique opportunity.